Brock Purdy went Joe Montana, at least in a statistical sense.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t going Patrick Mahomes.
Russell Wilson is going back to the kitchen (to cook, obviously).
Justin Herbert is going seemingly nowhere.
Jordan Love is going “new Jordan Love?”
And Tommy DeVito is going more than Danny DeVito jokes.
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Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position. Quarterbacks are listed by EPA per dropback.
I’ve expanded the rankings a bit to include quarterbacks with only a couple of starts. So the parameter for being ranked is a minimum of 100 dropbacks this season.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 12.
Nos. 1-10
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.30 (1) | 0.54 (1) | 115.1 (1) | 158.3 (1) | |
0.18 (2) | -0.05 (17) | 106.0 (2) | 103.0 (10) | |
0.17 (3) | 0.20 (7) | 104.0 (4) | 95.2 (13) | |
0.17 (4) | 0.26 (4) | 99.5 (7) | 99.3 (12) | |
0.15 (5) | 0.27 (3) | 97.6 (9) | 108.2 (7) | |
0.15 (6) | 0.14 (9) | 99.3 (8) | 85.0 (16) | |
0.10 (7) | -0.25 (25) | 93.8 (12) | 71.6 (20) | |
0.10 (8) | 0.01 (16) | 96.1 (10) | 68.3 (22) | |
0.09 (9) | -0.21 (23) | 94.8 (11) | 64.6 (23) | |
0.06 (10) | IR | 103.8 (5) | IR |
Purdy became the first 49ers quarterback to post a perfect passer rating on at least 19 attempts since Joe Montana in 1989. Let that sink in.
Purdy produced back-to-back weeks of career-high passer ratings in Weeks 10 and 11. That’s not easy considering his previous career high in only 13 regular season starts stood at 144.4 in the Niners’ Week 5 blowout of the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 10, Purdy shredded the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 148.9 rating. In Week 11, he put up a perfect rating. Purdy has yielded a passer rating of 111.0 or better in 10 of his 15 career regular season starts.
Neither Mahomes, nor Jalen Hurts compiled even average rates in the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch on Monday. It was Hurts’ lowest EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating of the season.
For Mahomes, it was his second-lowest EPA rate and third-lowest passer rating in 2023. But for Mahomes, his pass catchers let him down with four dropped passes, including the potential game-winning touchdown by Marquez Valdes-Scantling late in the fourth quarter. Mahomes ranks tied for third with 19 dropped passes by his teammates this season, which actually matches his total at this point in 2022 and four fewer than in 2021:
Chiefs dropped passes in Weeks 1-11
- 2020: 19
- 2021: 23
- 2022: 19
- 2023: 19
Regardless, Mahomes’ rates are at a single-season low through 11 weeks, which continues the trend we saw in Weeks 1-4:
Patrick Mahomes from Weeks 1-11 (Starting career)
| Year | EPA/db | psr rt |
|---|---|---|
2018 | 0.36 | 117.9 |
2019 | 0.3 | 110.0 |
2020 | 0.31 | 114.3 |
2021 | 0.13 | 94.7 |
2022 | 0.33 | 107.3 |
2023 | 0.10 | 93.8 |
Tua Tagovailoa has seesawed the past four weeks with passer ratings around 87.0 or 100.0 in his past four games. He’s also chalked up three negative EPA rates in the past four games. The two tougher outings occurred on the road against the Eagles and the Chiefs. The Miami Dolphins quarterback has certainly played at a Pro Bowl level this year. It’s when tougher opponents arrive that still could be a concern for Tua and Dolphins fans.
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Week 11 marked the first time Dak Prescott watched his passer rating dip below 109.3 in the past five games. Gasp! Not really. The Dallas Cowboys signal-caller has been superb during the five-game stretch, posting a 0.30 EPA rate and 118.7 passer rating from Weeks 6-11 (bye week in Week 7).
I believe the Los Angeles Chargers just like to toy with Herbert’s hopes and dreams. Another week of “What more can Herbert do?” came in Week 11. Six drops by his pass catchers, arguably two touchdowns, proved costly for the Chargers in their loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Coincidence Josh Allen compiled some of his best rates since early in the season on the heels of an offensive coordinator change? Maybe. And against the New York Jets, who’ve been very good against great quarterbacks this season? Maybe as well. Allen tallied his best EPA rate since Week 5 and best passer rating since his perfect day in Week 4. This came with only four catches for 27 yards from Stefon Diggs and an O-for by Gabe Davis.
C.J. Stroud had an adventurous Week 11 with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the Houston Texans’ win over the Arizona Cardinals. But the rookie yielded a good EPA rate thanks to his 72.7 third-down conversion rate on pass plays. That’s the fifth-highest rate of any QB in a game this season. Add another reason to believe in Stroud.
Like Stroud, a very good day converting third downs (66.7 percent, No. 2 in Week 11) helped Jared Goff — barely — tally a positive EPA rate in Week 11 after throwing three interceptions in the win over the Chicago Bears. Goff had his worst passer rating since a Week 5 loss to the New England Patriots last season. That was before Goff and the Lions started taking off.
Nos. 11-20
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.06 (11) | -0.14 (22) | 80.8 (28) | 70.6 (21) | |
0.05 (12) | -0.13 (20) | 91.5 (16) | 76.7 (19) | |
0.03 (13) | 0.26 (5) | 83.8 (26) | 108.5 (6) | |
0.01 (14) | 0.08 (12) | 89.7 (19) | 94.4 (14) | |
0.00 (15) | 0.24 (6) | 100.1 (6) | 121.3 (4) | |
-0.01 (16) | 0.05 (13) | 104.3 (3) | 106.7 (8) | |
-0.02 (17) | 0.10 (11) | 84.7 (23) | 80.3 (18) | |
-0.03 (18) | 0.02 (14) | 91.0 (17) | 100.4 (11) | |
-0.04 (19) | BYE | 89.8 (18) | BYE | |
-0.04 (20) | -0.14 (21) | 88.6 (22) | 62.7 (25) |
Matthew Stafford amassed his second-lowest EPA rate and third-lowest passer rating this year, and the Los Angeles Rams still pulled out the win against the Seattle Seahawks. Stafford has a 73.4 passer rating in his last three starts after posting a 107.3 passer rating in a Week 6 win over the Cardinals.
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Baker Mayfield felt the wrath of a revived Niners defense in Week 11. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB produced his worst EPA rate and passer rating since the team’s Week 6 loss to the Lions. This coming off a Weeks 9-10 stretch during which he yielded a 0.29 EPA rate and 111.1 passer rating.
It’s the second time in three games that Love compiled a passer rating north of 108.0. Probably not much of a coincidence that the Packers won both of those games. Love still managed a 0.15 EPA rate in a Week 10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s had a 0.18 EPA rate in the past three weeks, sixth in the NFL.
The Seahawks had good Geno Smith before an injury sidelined him during the second half of their Week 11 loss to the Rams. He even gutted it out to give Seattle a shot to win the game in the closing moments. It’s the fourth time in five weeks that Smith produced a 0.04 EPA rate or better.
Lamar Jackson’s performance might have gotten lost following Joe Burrow’s injury. His Week 11 outing broke an EPA rate skid in which the Baltimore Ravens passer compiled a -0.23 mark in Weeks 8-10. The Ravens won two of those games showing how good overall this team can play. Losing tight end Mark Andrews to injury, though, will be quite the hurdle moving forward.
Josh Dobbs looked a little skittish at times in the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos. Still, he carries a 0.13 EPA rate and 94.4 passer rating in his three games with the team.
Derek Carr’s status is a question mark in Week 12 after suffering a concussion and right shoulder injury in Week 10. The Jameis Winston experience after Carr left yielded two TD passes, two interceptions, a -0.10 EPA rate and 59.1 passer rating.
It’s pretty wild how poorly Sam Howell plays against the New York Giants. The Washington Commanders quarterback amassed a combined -0.24 EPA rate and 61.7 passer rating in the two losses to New York this season. Remove those two games from Howell’s docket and he’s tallied a 0.01 EPA rate and 95.2 passer rating in the other nine starts in 2023. Crazytown!
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Nos. 21-30
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.04 (21) | BYE | 83.8 (27) | BYE | |
-0.05 (22) | NA | 78.1 (31) | NA | |
-0.05 (23) | 0.13 (10) | 89.3 (20) | 143.8 (2) | |
-0.05 (24) | 0.17 (8) | 93.3 (13) | 105.2 (9) | |
-0.06 (25) | 0.46 (2) | 92.2 (14) | 119.5 (5) | |
-0.09 (26) | IR | 92.1 (15) | IR | |
-0.10 (27) | NA | 71.4 (35) | NA | |
-0.11 (28) | -0.25 (24) | 70.6 (36) | 56.0 (28) | |
-0.11 (29) | NA | 71.9 (34) | NA | |
-0.11 (30) | BYE | 84.1 (25) | BYE |
Russell Wilson’s worst single-game EPA rate of his career in a Week 6 loss to Kansas City may have been a catalyst for the quarterback and a Broncos four-game winning streak. Wilson has tallied a 0.05 EPA rate, 112.9 passer rating and 74.1 completion percentage since Week 7. Wilson also has seven TD passes and no interceptions during the win streak.
Will Levis pulled off one of the strangest stat lines in recent memory. The Tennessee Titans QB produced the best passer rating in a loss since Aaron Rodgers’ 148.4 mark in Week 11 of the 2021 season. And did you know that former Jets quarterback Chad Pennington yielded a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a 2003 loss to the Indianapolis Colts? Peyton Manning threw for 401 yards and a TD and Edgerrin James rushed for three TDs that day for Indy.
In his last three full games (Weeks 4-5, 11), the Bears’ Justin Fields tallied a 0.23 EPA rate and 125.9 passer rating with nine TD passes and one interception. Usually that leads to winning football. The Bears went 1-2 in those games, including the Week 11 loss to the Lions.
In Week 10, Trevor Lawrence produced the worst EPA rate (-0.61) of his career in a loss to the Niners. In Week 11, the Jaguars passer chalked up his best EPA rate of 2023 and third best of his career in a win over the Titans. That’s why Levis’ numbers went for naught. It was also Lawrence’s best passer rating of the season and best overall since a Week 14 win last season against … Tennessee.
Impossible to know what the end game will be for Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders this season. The team lost a close game to the Dolphins in Week 11 with O’Connell compiling his lowest EPA rate, passer rating and completion percentage (58.5 percent) of the season.
Following Taylor Heinicke’s injury, Desmond Ridder is set to return as the Atlanta Falcons’ starter in the team’s Week 12 matchup with the New Orleans Saints.
Nos. 31-38
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.16 (31) | NA | 84.3 (24) | NA | |
-0.16 (32) | BYE | 80.2 (29) | BYE | |
-0.19 (33) | NA | 51.3 (38) | NA | |
-0.20 (34) | -0.49 (29) | 79.2 (30) | 62.5 (26) | |
-0.22 (35) | -0.45 (28) | 74.7 (32) | 62.9 (24) | |
-0.23 (36) | IR | 70.5 (37) | IR | |
-0.24 (37) | -0.34 (27) | 73.8 (33) | 57.9 (27) | |
-0.26 (38) | 0.01 (15) | 88.9 (21) | 137.7 (3) |
The Cleveland Browns pulled off the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting in place of Deshaun Watson. And his Week 11 rates, though ugly (-0.27 EPA rate, 54.9 passer rating), were better than his previous start in Week 4 (-0.65, 25.3). Is that enough to hold off P.J. Walker and Joe Flacco for the starting job? (Now that’s a helluva couple of sentences.)
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Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe for the New England Patriots this week? I don’t think it really matters.
I get that the Browns defense has made plenty of quarterbacks look bad this season. But Kenny Pickett has seemed to have these kinds of games regardless of the opponent. The sample size is large enough by now. Where’s the progress? He’s only yielded a passer rating above 90.0 in three starts in his career. Will that change now that the Steelers have fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada? Time may be running out.
We’re not to that point yet with the Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young. Still, his rates the last three weeks have been dreadful: -0.33 EPA rate, 59.5 passer rating (worst and second worst in the NFL over that span, respectively).
Who’s ready for the Tim Boyle era with the Jets? I’m serious when saying this: I think third-stringer Trevor Siemian would actually give the Jets the best chance to win. You heard it here first.
And I might have extended the rankings parameters just to include the Giants’ Tommy DeVito. Talk about a guy popping up out the coffin like The Undertaker in WWE land. DeVito took nine sacks and still managed to post a 137.7 passer rating.
(The Cardinals’ Kyler Murray isn’t qualified yet. He compiled a -0.12 EPA rate in each of his two starts since returning in Week 10 after last season’s knee injury. His overall passer rating sits at 77.6.)
Week 12 defense vs. QB EPA matchups
| Team | DefEPA/db | Opp qb | Epa/db |
|---|---|---|---|
0.30 (1) | Russell Wilson | -0.01 (16) | |
0.15 (2) | Justin Herbert | 0.17 (4) | |
0.14 (3) | Aidan O'Connell | -0.11 (28) | |
0.10 (4) | Sam Howell | -0.04 (20) | |
0.10 (5) | Geno Smith | 0.01 (14) | |
0.07 (6) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.18 (2) | |
0.06 (7) | C.J. Stroud | 0.15 (6) | |
0.04 (8) | Jake Browning | -0.08 (NR) | |
0.03 (9) | Jalen Hurts | 0.09 (9) | |
0.03 (10) | Tim Boyle | -0.69 (NR) | |
0.02 (11) | Baker Mayfield | 0.05 (12) | |
-0.00 (12) | Patrick Mahomes | 0.10 (7) | |
-0.00 (13) | Desmond Ridder | -0.11 (30) | |
-0.01 (14) | Will Levis | -0.05 (23) | |
-0.01 (15) | Justin Fields | -0.05 (24) | |
-0.03 (16) | Josh Allen | 0.15 (5) | |
-0.03 (17) | Kenny Pickett | -0.20 (34) | |
-0.03 (18) | Brock Purdy | 0.30 (1) | |
-0.03 (19) | Jared Goff | 0.10 (8) | |
-0.03 (20) | Mac Jones* | -0.16 (32) | |
-0.04 (21) | Jordan Love | 0.03 (13) | |
-0.06 (22) | Trevor Lawrence | -0.06 (25) | |
-0.06 (23) | Derek Carr* | -0.04 (19) | |
-0.07 (24) | Kyler Murray | -0.12 (NR) | |
-0.08 (25) | Tommy DeVito | -0.26 (38) | |
-0.12 (26) | Gardner Minshew | -0.04 (21) | |
-0.14 (27) | Matthew Stafford | 0.06 (11) | |
-0.14 (28) | Joshua Dobbs | -0.02 (17) | |
-0.15 (29) | Dak Prescott | 0.17 (3) | |
-0.15 (30) | Lamar Jackson | 0.00 (15) | |
-0.16 (31) | Bryce Young | -0.22 (35) | |
-0.16 (32) | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | -0.44 (NR) |
*Starter in question
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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